mr. positivity makes a prediction

richard haass, president of the council on foreign relations, on the middle east:

Visions of a new Middle East that is peaceful, prosperous and democratic will not be realized. Much more likely is the emergence of a new Middle East that will cause great harm to itself and the world. Iran will be a powerful state in the region, a classical imperial power. No viable peace process between Israel and the Palestinians is likely for the foreseeable future. Militias will emerge throughout the region, terrorism will grow in sophistication, tensions between Sunni and Shia will increase, causing problems in countries with divided societies, such as Bahrain, Lebanon and Saudi Arabia. Islam will fill the political and intellectual vacuum. Iraq at best will remain messy for years to come, with a weak central government, a divided society and sectarian violence. At worst, it will become a failed state racked by all-out civil war that will draw in its neighbors.

slightly more positive (and i do mean slightly): dr. james zogby, president of the arab american institute in washington d.c. and senior analyst at the polling firm zogby international. here's what he has to say:

The problem is that what the administration’s tactics and the Democrat’s proposals all have in common is that they are as unilateral, presumptive, and ignorant of Iraq’s realities, as was the war itself. What is required is a more regional and internationalized approach - but that is not being actively discussed.

Over a year-and-a-half ago, a rather sound proposal along these lines was offered, in different forms, by Senators Chuck Hagel (R-NE) and John Kerry (D-MA). Among other points, they called for drawing Iraq’s neighbors into the creation of a standing regional security entity under the auspices of the UN or NATO (thus removing the US as the principal actor).